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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still