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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.